Too many mistakes

I played quite a few hands today and I'm sure I finished down. I didn't run all that well but I made a ton of mistakes. I'm not that happy with the way I played. I can do better.

This hand really pissed me off because I think I made a pretty big mistake. I had the chance to make a world-class play but I messed it up. Villain in this hand is a regular on UB that I've played THOUSANDS of hands with. He's quite the pushover to 3-bets and I can generally read him like a fricken book. So in this particular hand, his pre-flop 3-bet is NEVER a bluff because he has to expect that the shortstack who flatted my raise on the button is going to just call off all in. So since I knew that + the fact that he 3-bet my UTG raise caused me to choose to flat his 3-bet pre-flop with AK. There was really no other option, in my opinion. His 3-bet stat is 7% from the BB but that number includes when he's 3-betting late position raisers as bluffs, etc. This situation is different. Because his 3-betting range here is TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, and AK (not even sure if he 3-bets TT and JJ all the time, honestly), a flat call is correct pre-flop.

I get my dream flop and bet out when he checks to me for value. He turned his hand face up pretty much by checking the flop, as now it's fairly unlikely he has AK or air, as he'd most likley c-bet the flop. Once he c/c flop, I know from playing with this guy so much, that he has squarely JJ-KK. The K is a bittersweet turn card. It increases my absolute hand strength to a higher two pair, but I think it actually hurts my relative hand strength, as one of the hands in his range (KK) now moved ahead of me (although unlikely of course, because it would have been a 1 outer). I don't expect to get 3 bets out of a hand like QQ so I check behind the turn for deception. The river is where I messed up. Up to this point, I played the hand perfectly. I was torn on what to do on the river. I decided to make a tiny bet, like 1/4 pot hoping to get CALLED by JJ or QQ. Once he CRAI on me it should have been appearant that he was slowplaying a boat on the flop or turned one. He's just not creative enought to bluff in this situation. period. I ended up calling in case he tried playing the same hand (AK) deceptively.

Conclusion: since I don't expect him to call a river bet, even $60, with JJ or QQ all too often since he's such a nit, I should have checked behind on the river. If I bet and he raises, it's a sick spot and I'm not sure what to do. And I'll just bet and he'll fold a ton. Or I'll bet and he'll CRAI with the same hand and we'll chop, just the same as we would have if I had checked behind.

There just isn't much he'll call me with on the river that I beat because it's so obvious that I'm value betting at least top pair or better and he's good enough to realize that and make a diciplined fold. Pretty interesting hand, however, but the main reason I didn't make the correct play is because I assumed that my small bet may have induced something and I ACTED TOO QUICKLY. I just snapcalled his shove without taking a second to think about it. If I had thought about it for 5 seconds, I would have realized that I have a good enough read on the player to know that he's NEVER capable of CRAI bluffing the river in this spot. Obviously pretty unlucky he actually 1-outed me on the turn... oh well, hopefully I can learn from this.

That was a long analysis, so I'll just post one more hand.

This is the bad beat of the day. I get it all in pre-flop as a 72% favorite but he flops a Royal Flush. I run goot !